Are we seeing the 'Green shoots' finally??

Recently, there has been some revival in the global market. So the question is that are we really beginning to see ‘green shoots’ of recovery?

People like Ben Bernanke of Federal Reserves and Baroness Vadera, the Business Minister and one of Gordon Brown's closest allies are some of the optimists. Well, Baroness Vadera was criticized and was accused of being "out of touch" and "living in a parallel universe" as thousands of jobs were lost every week in UK. Mr Bernanke predicted in a television interview that America's worst recession in decades likely will end this year, and that the economic recovery would gather steam next year. However, his remarked was once again drawn parallel with more job losses looming on the horizon, and some experts have predicted that the Fed chief's 'green shoots' of revival may yet be a false dawn. Predicting that no more big banks will fail, Bernanke also called on Washington's wrangling politicians to show the will needed for economic recovery as he pointed out how close the world came to financial meltdown last autumn .Bernake underscored the severity of the economic crisis and was of the view that depends on fixing the crisis-hit US banking system.

So what is the reason for such optimism? Well, US Treasury bill prices have been falling and yields rising, an indication that some of the money that had rushed to this safe haven is venturing out again. The US TED spread, or the difference between the three-month dollar Libor (London interbank offered rate) and three-month treasury bills, a measure of risk aversion, is now down to levels last seen in the middle of August. Fund tracker EPFR Global says investors are pulling out of US money-market funds and heading to emerging-market equities, high-yield bonds and US growth funds. Junk bond yields have declined.

There have also been some recent positive signs among the “fundamental” indicators. Chief among them are the purchasing managers’ surveys, which show that although the global economy continues to contract, the pace of contraction has slowed. In China, government bond prices have declined for the third week running on hopes of an economic recovery after the country’s banks lent record amounts in January. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index has been bumping along at the 850 level for the last month, off the depths it plumbed last December. There has also been a surge in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which has more than doubled from its December lows. Shipments of iron ore to China have resumed and prices have moved up. Chinese steel prices are up smartly from their lows. Back home, too, there is some encouraging news. Automobile sales, for instance, seem to have picked up. Cement dispatches are robust. Tata Steel recently reported its steel sales were up 26% year-on-year in January. Even Indian stock markets have rallied hard and the BSE has finally crossed 10000 mark.
In the US, the Obama administration is taking radical measures to free the banking system to add to the Fed's historic untying of knots monetary policy and the recent one being the 1 Trillion dollar Budget amidst heavy criticism. Central banks in the United States and the United Kingdom are pumping billions of dollars into the economy. Even the Bank of England, which was ultra-cautious for the first year of the crisis, is now is at forefront to offer aid to the stricken banking sector and measures to boost the money supply.
So considering the aforesaid trends, could the worst be over? Have we finally seen the ’bottom’ and the Bull is ready to take on the Bear? Well, it is too early to comment on the ‘Green shoots’ and the global endeavours are the need of hour to avert this financial Armageddon. The crisis is looming large and the onus is upon the statesmen world over to work in a direction to deal with this crisis to ensure the nullification of the same to be a matter few years instead of decades. I agree with when Neil Cumming, who manages the PSigma UK Growth Fund, said: "It is too early to declare the presence of the green shoots of recovery, but the frosts are at least receding."

'Pub'lic emotions.....

The incident of beating up of women at a pub in Mangalore was seen by the whole country and was vehemently condemned by everyone..except the Hindu right-wing. Some people shrugged and thought that it's another incident of moral-policing from another 'sena' as they have become used to it.

What surprised me the most is the complete inertness of the people of Mangalore and Karnataka at large and the statement of the Hon'ble Chief Minister of Karnataka who condemned the attacks. But at the same time he criticized the 'pub culture' branding it as against the 'Indian culture' and thus, underlying and justifying the attack. One thing that I fail to comprehend is that what is the Indian culture? who defines it? where does it start or end? The old cliche of freedom of speech and expression in democracy has it's place in this whole incident. On one hand we have demonstration of hatred and violence by Ram Sena against the pubs. On the other hand, there is the freedom to socialize in places like pubs and bars which the majority has resonated.

Well, the bottom line is, that in this patriarchal society, every one wants to protect the Indian culture specially when it is in context of the involvement of the women of India. The culture is more or less synonymous with the behavior of women here. So , most of the time, 'saviours' of the Indian culture direct their wrath over women.

Well, at least such attacks have done one thing...The people who stayed away from pubs earlier must be curious enough to try it now..at least to defy such 'saviours'!!

God bless them........

I agree with CK Daftary, former attorney general of India when he quoted "A Republic without a pub in it will be a mere relic."

2009...eventful .....

2009 has been eventful so far. Satyam, Slumdog Millionaire, Rahman winning Golden Globe and 3 nominations in Oscars, Obama taking office etc. etc.

2009 will be a crucial year for the whole world with the recission looming large over every country. For India, where we have been living in the mode of denial, it's going to be a tough road ahead. And to top everything, there is Central elections in April-May! Theater of Absurd is ahead of us and God bless us all.

So..live, hope, pray, dream, believe and surge!

For the love of the Maximum City!

Lately, I have been subdued and enraged. Subdued, because of the attack on very heart of the city of Bombay and killings of innocent lives. Enraged, because of the failure of the state and center government as well as the irresponsible behavior of the whole political cadre of the country.

We saw the mayhem and bedlam. We felt the pain of losing loved ones and prayed for the lives of the ones who were facing death. We witnessed the bravery of the long forgotten heroes in Police, fire-brigade and yes, the NSG who once again displayed the strength of our security and army personals. We also saw the remorseless and shameless faces of our politicians who did not allow this opportunity to pass in waging their war of words with the upcoming election in mind.

I am one of the millions who are furious with the passiveness of the government machinery and the opposition parties. I was with the thousand of my fellow citizens on 3rd December at the Gateway to show our solidarity against the aftermath of such heinous act against the humanity. Although in the brisk flow of emotions, the substance and the purpose of the gathering was faded, the spirit is still intact.

The Maximum City was burning haplessly for almost three days and every blast in Taj and Oberoi made our hearts bleed. How can a bunch of rats have such audacity to wriggle out of their holes and cause such mayhem? Can we allow such cowards to keep their filthy feet on the heart of our city and kill our brothers and sisters? Can they break our spirits? Is our country not worth the lives and sacrifices of the security persons and policemen?

We need to rise and rise now!

Shine on you crazy Diamond....Glory glory Indian Space Scientists!

Indian Space scientists have given the whole Country a moment that we should all be proud of. India's first lunar mission 'Chandrayaan - I' will provide important insights into the lunar environment including data.

During 1960s, President John F. Kennedy inspired an entire generation , whose words about the importance of space exploration are so relevant for India's successful mission today: President Kennedy said 'It is one of the great adventures of all time...and no Nation which expects to be the leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in the race to space.'

The spacecraft was injected in elliptical transfer orbit with a perigee of about 250 km and apogee of about 23,000 km. It will continue to orbit the earth for fifteen days before entering into the Moon's gravitational area and entering the Lunar orbit.

Let us keep our fingers crossed for next 15 days till the spacecraft reaches its lunar orbit after 15 days. My heartiest congratulations to the entire ISRO Team who have made Chandrayaan-I a dream come true. I wish that ISRO uses this moment to popularize 'Science' as a subject amongst the children of our country, which NASA has been able to do with great panache in USA.

Mutiny in diversity!!

The recent developments in Jammu and Kashmir and later in Orissa have made us look like a bunch of juveniles to the whole world, who are fighting for crazy tiny little things and the only difference being that in the process, we are killing each other. To begin with, the controversies in respect of Amarnath Shrine Board's Land are the issues that have been blown out of proportion, courtesy BJP and the Hurriat Conference. The leaders of Hurriat Conference have publicly thanked BJP and its sidekick VHP, who have finally found something to make their presence felt, for reviving the separatist agenda in Jammu and Kashmir. Unfortunately, the central government has failed to put its foot down and control the situation in this case which really questions the credibility of this government who is still euphoric to be able to “win” the confidence motion in July.

The other instance in Orissa, where a VHP leader was killed and again the VHP’s agenda of extremism found an excuse to burn the churches and missionaries which has unfortunately attracted the attention of western countries hurting the secular image of the country. Such incidents are not novel for this country which has seen the religious hallucinations of the extremists. The situation in Jammu and Kashmir is very serious which has endangered the unity of the Republic of India. The separatist agenda has got a new lease of life and it is slowly turning out to be a ubiquitous monster which will adversely affect the sovereignty of India. The author wishes that a national party of the stature of BJP should have shown some political ingenuity instead of opportunism in this case. As media reports quote, for the first time, the people in valley were shouting ‘Pakistan Zindabad, Bharat teri maut aayi’. The Author hopes that the government and the main opposition party will comprehend the gravity of this situation and will act pragmatically for the unity of the country. Or else, we will not be witnessing the unity in diversity, but a vulgar display of Mutiny in diversity!The author does not wish to revert, but knows that he will be back to write more about this ...sooner or later!!!

Sam Bahadur......a Hero Departs!!

Field Marshal Sam Hormusji Framji Jamshedji Manekshaw, popularly known in the Army as Sam Bahadur , passed away on June 27. However, he will live long in our memories and will continue to inspire generations of officers in the country.

His exemplary abilities are evident from this incident which the late Field Marshal narrated this incident at the inaugural Field Marshal KM Cariappa Memorial Lecture in October 1995 at Delhi.

"There is a very thin line between being dismissed and becoming a Field Marshal. In 1971, when Pakistan cracked down in East Pakistan, hundreds and thousands of refugees started pouring into India, into West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. The Prime Minister held a Cabinet meeting in her office. I was then summoned.

A very angry, grim-faced Prime Minister read out telegrams from the Chief Ministers of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. She then turned around to me and said, 'What are you doing about it?' And I said, 'Nothing, it's got nothing to do with me. You didn't consult me when you allowed the BSF, the CRP and RAW to encourage the Pakistanis to revolt. Now that you are in trouble, you come to me. I have a long nose. I know what's happening.'

She said, 'I want you to enter Pakistan. And I responded, That means war!'

She said, 'I do not mind if it is war.'

I said 'Are you prepared? I am certainly not. This is the end of April. The Himalayan passes are opening and there can be an attack from China.'

I turned around to the Prime Minister and said that the rains were about to start in East Pakistan and when it rains there, it pours and the whole countryside is flooded.

The snows are melting, the rivers would become like oceans. All my movement would be confined to roads."

Manekshaw told Gandhi that the Air Force would not be able to provide support because of climatic conditions. "Now Prime Minister, give me your orders. The grim Prime Minister with her teeth clenched said, 'The Cabinet will meet again at four o'clock.'

The Cabinet members started walking out. I being the junior most was the last to go and as I was leaving, she said, 'Chief, will you stay back?'

I turned around and said, 'Prime Minister, before you open your mouth, may I send you my resignation on grounds of health, mental or physical?'

She said, 'Everything you told me is true.'

'Yes! It is my job to tell you the truth,' I responded. 'And it is my job to fight, it is my job to fight to win and I have to tell you the truth.'

She smiled at me and said, 'All right Sam, you know what I want?' I said, 'Yes, I know what you want!'"

Manekshaw apparently had his way as the Bangladesh war took place seven months later, giving the armed forces ample time for preparations.

He was granted the rank fifteen days before his retirement. Many were envious of him. A Field Marshal is supposed to be in service throughout his life - and Sam Manekshaw had to wait for thirty-odd years to get the salary of his rank!

His attitude and flamboyance is evident from this incident narated by Mr. Ramamohan Rao former Principal Information Officer, Government of India.

" I remember the warmth that he showed whenever I met him in his office. During the tense days, one morning he called me to his office and asked me to draft a note. A heavy smoker those days, I was fumbling with my pen. He asked me what is wrong? I told him that to activate my faculties, I had to have a cigarette.

He told me: "Son, there is a cigarette box on my table. They contain good cigarettes. The President of India pays for them. In future, when you come to my room help yourself and you do not have to seek my permission."

I did have a smoke. The story was that only three officers smoked in the Army Chief's room. One was the Vice Chief of Army Staff, Lt.Gen. Har Prasad, the second was Lt.Gen. Reggi (R.S).Noronha, the Deputy Chief who smoked his cigar, and third was me."

Sam Bahadur....you will be missed!!